Passenger Association: May new energy vehicle production fix, unchanged expectations of 5.5 million units for the year
The new energy vehicle market recovered beyond expectations in May.
Wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars reached 421,000 units in May, up 111.5% year-on-year and 49.8% sequentially; new retail sales reached 360,000 units, up 91.2% year-on-year and 26.9% sequentially.
From January to May, domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1,712,000 units, up 119.5% year on year. In the first five months, the wholesale and retail market of new energy vehicles formed a "W-shaped" trend.
Tesla's production and sales have also recovered significantly, with over 40,000 vehicles rolled off the production line since the resumption of production. 22,340 units were exported in May, and from January to May, Tesla delivered 215,851 units, an increase of over 50% year-on-year.
01
Production and wholesale volume rebounded sharply
In May, China's pure electric wholesale sales increased by 324,000 units, up 96.3% year-over-year and 51.1% sequentially; plug-in hybrid sales increased by 98,000 units, up 184.4% year-over-year and 45.8% sequentially.
Plug-in hybrid models have always maintained a high growth trend. Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Association, believes that this to some extent validates the market prediction that "plug-in hybrid is the first step in the transformation of the oil car submarine" by some manufacturers.
In May, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers wholesale penetration rate of 26.5%, compared to the same period last year 12.4% penetration rate of 14 percentage points, but compared to April this year has decreased. May, independent brand new energy vehicle penetration rate of 45%; luxury cars in the new energy vehicle penetration rate of 19%; and mainstream joint venture brand new energy vehicle penetration rate of only 4.1%.
In terms of retail, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in May was 26.6%, 15 percentage points higher than the penetration rate of 11.6% in the same month last year. 51.8% of new energy vehicles were penetrated by independent brands in May; 9.2% of new energy vehicles were penetrated by luxury cars, and only 4.0% of new energy vehicles were penetrated by mainstream joint venture brands.
From the grading point of view, the "dumbbell" structure of the pure electric market continues to improve. In May, the wholesale sales of A00-class electric vehicles increased by 48% year-on-year and 137% year-on-year, accounting for 23% of the share of pure electric vehicles.
02
The outstanding performance of traditional car companies
Autonomous gained significant increment in the new energy market, and the head enterprises performed well. Traditional car enterprises such as BYD Auto, Geely Automobile, Changan Automobile, and CHERY Automobile increased their brand share significantly. SAIC Passenger Cars and FAW HONGQI both increased by more than 260% YoY, which shows that the overall effect of stabilizing work and resuming production is outstanding.
Among the mainstream joint venture brands, North and South Volkswagen was very seriously affected by the epidemic and is now back on the battlefield. The new energy vehicle wholesale 13,825 units, occupying a 63% share of the mainstream joint venture. Cui Dongshu believes that VW's firm electrification transformation strategy is beginning to bear fruit, but other JV and luxury brands are still waiting to make a push.
In terms of new power, in May, new power companies such as LEADING IDEAL, NETA, XPENG, LEAPMOTOR, NIO, and WM Motor performed well; the second camp of NETA and LEAPMOTOR performed stronger.
Specifically, there were 13 companies whose manufacturers' wholesale sales exceeded 10,000 units, accounting for 80% of the total number of new energy passenger vehicles. Among them: BYD 114,183 units, Shanghai General Motors Wuling 37,313 units, Tesla China 32,165 units, CHERY Automobile 21,772 units, AION 21,056 units, SAIC Passenger Cars 20,693 units, Geely Automobile 19,270 units, Changan Automobile 11,922 units, Great Wall Moter 11,637 units, LEADING IDEAL 11,496 units, NETA 11,009 units, XPENG 10,125 units, and LEAPMOTOR 10,069 units.
Cui Dongshu also mentioned the issue of the marketing model. He believes that in the long run, the direct and distribution models will still co-exist in the long run. As new energy vehicles gradually enter the stage of large-scale sales and close sales, the drawbacks of the simple direct sales model will also emerge.
The direct sales model requires strong brand and product power. In the market when the supply exceeds the demand, the cost of direct operation can be kept optimal; when the supply exceeds the demand, a large number of direct channels will become a heavy burden, especially the layout of the channel in the sinking market still has to refer to the experience of cell phones and other industries, the dealership model will still have some room for survival after the integration of a strong online and offline system.
03
Export performance is bright
May new energy vehicle exports 39,000 units, with the epidemic under the resumption of work and production policy support, SAIC passenger cars of new energy exports 8,212 units, Tesla China exports 22,340 units, NISSAN EJET exports 3,937 units, Geely Automobile exports 1,786 units, CHERY Automobile new energy exports 670 units, Great Wall new energy vehicles 506 units, BYD new energy vehicles 415 units, other New energy vehicles of other car companies have also started to increase their export efforts.
Since 2021, the export of new energy vehicles has been performing well, with Europe and South Asia becoming the main incremental markets. 2021 new energy vehicle exports reached 310,000 units, up 304.6% year-on-year.
In May, new energy vehicles accounted for 21.2% of the total export volume. 141,000 vehicles were exported by independent brands in May, up 77% year-on-year, while 42,000 vehicles were exported by joint venture and luxury brands, up 76% year-on-year.
For the recent outstanding performance of new energy vehicle exports. Cui Dongshu believes that there are two main reasons for this, one is the competitiveness of Chinese products, and the recognition of China's new energy automotive products subsequently increased.
Second, the global shortage of chips and resources has led to a sharp reduction in automobile production in Europe, the United States, Japan, and other countries, and a lack of market supply. Cui Dongshu said that this situation can also be seen in the high price of used cars. The supply of Chinese products has filled the gap.
04
Car purchase incentives have little impact on new energy vehicles
In Cui Dongshu's view, the 60 billion fuel car purchase tax incentives will have little impact on new energy vehicle sales, which are still given as 5.5 million units for the year.
In this regard, Cui Dongshu gave 6 reasons.
First, the consumer groups are different. The price range of fuel cars and new energy vehicles are more clearly separated, and the high and low ends of new energy vehicles are clearly characterized. Many families choose new energy cars for their second car, especially this one in which women prefer new energy cars, and will not change back to fuel cars because of the different uses.
Second, the technology of electric vehicles is also improving. Although in recent years the pure electric car overzealous development of lithium iron phosphate, resulting in slow improvement in the energy density of the battery, some car companies are still trying to promote the battery technology to improve, compared to the traditional fuel car technology to improve faster.
Third, new energy vehicles in some segments of the market have established advantages, the user will not reverse the choice back. Electric vehicles in the rental network car market occupy an absolute advantage, the early rental network car use of electric vehicles is policy-driven, the recent is the cost of high oil prices after the drive, many cab drivers can not afford to drive oil cars to run rental.
Fourth, the plug-in hybrid cost-effective advantage. BYD and some other new energy vehicle enterprises have hundreds of thousands of undelivered orders, the order delivery cycle is long, and even if there are customers backed out of the order and choose fuel cars, electric car companies may also be shortened by the delivery cycle to complete the year's volume.
Fifth, the constraints of double points. If the oil car sales increase, the pressure of double points of car companies may also rise. Therefore, car companies will try to build some new energy vehicles to meet the fuel consumption regulations.
Sixth, some local governments have launched special subsidies related to new energy vehicles, and the relevant ministries have also carried out new energy vehicles in the countryside to increase the promotion of new energy vehicles in the county and rural markets.
For the domestic market, Cui Dongshu is confident, he believes that with the rebound of the valuation of the Chinese stock market and the receding trend of layoffs in the Internet industry, the rhythm of the issuance of special bonds front and continued efforts in the field of new construction, income expectations and consumer confidence is expected to pick up, the high-end new energy vehicle market is still a strong vitality, but the leading or economic electric vehicles, A00-class, and A0-class electric vehicle market has great potential.
